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Welcome to The Matchday Digest!

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Gameweek 6 Preview and Projections

Title Race

The ‘Recent Change’ on the graphic shows the end of gameweek 4 to the end of gameweek 5. This shows the impact of the Manchester City vs Arsenal draw actually being bad for both sides, Arsenal especially losing 4.2% on their chances at the title. Chelsea is also having their title chances slashed after a defeat to Manchester United.

Relegation Battle

Above shows all teams with a current chance of relegation of 5% or more. Leeds United where the huge movers last week after beating Wolves, as any game directly between relegation candidates are can produce big swings.

Wolves now stand firmly as the most likely team to be relegated after 5 gameweeks at 67.4%.

Nottingham Forest might be one to watch, a loss to Sunderland this weekend could really throw them right in the mix…

How does the Fusion-Sim 1.0 Model see Gameweek 5

Manchester United are the favourites in an away game! That might be the first time the model has shown that in about a year!

Manchester City, on the other hand, are as expected to most favoured to win against this gameweek, being 72.1% likely to do so against Burnley and have an expected goals of 2.57.

Tottenham are second most likely to win playing Wolves at home, at 55.8% with a 35.0% chance of a clean sheet.

Is this finally the weekend Liverpool’s unbeaten start also comes to an end? Crystal Palace are winning 29.5% of the matchups in the 10,000 simulations from the FusionSim 1.0 model.

That’s it for this week’s Matchday Digest, hope you enjoyed this brief preview and catch you next week on what gameweeks 6 results did to the projections and what gameweek 7 has to come.

— Aaron.