Welcome to The Matchday Digest!

Gameweek 17 Preview and Projections

Title Race

We seem now to be heading to a 3-way title fight, Manchester City look to solidly be back in the fight now at 33.0%, slightly higher than their pre-season probability, Arsenal, with a poor performance against Wolves, have dropped slightly, and Aston Villa sit just on the outside, ready to jump at any opportunity.

Relegation Battle

I said last week that Burnley vs Fulham could have big implications and well, that loss for Burnley sent them 9.0% more likely to be releagted and now sit at 83.7% likely and with Nottingham Forest picking up a win against Spurs the chance we see the current bottom 3 relegated from the Premier League is 41.8%, with the chance that its atleast Burnley and Wolves at 82.5%…

Matrix & Average Table

Yes, somehow there is 1 simulation in all 10,000 which sees Nottingham Forest come back and win the Premier League, it’s simulation 4,311, they win the league on just 69 points!

The average table looks like this, the gap between Arsenal and Man City is now just 3 points…

How does the Fusion-Sim 2.0 Model see Gameweek 17?

Man City are projected to be the highest scoring team of the weekend, playing West Ham at home, no surprises there, with West Ham only picking up a clean sheet in 7.9% of sims.

The closest game of the gameweek is on paper Newcastle against Chelsea with the model just about siding with the home team, Newcastle at 40.7% to Chelsea 33.9%.

Man United are given just a 26.3% chance of winning against Aston Villa, which probably would be the most Man United thing possible after drawing 4-4 with Bournemouth last gameweek.

And finally, just for Manchester United fans, check out Back to Carrington below!

Match Reviews and Form & Trends all stat-based too

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading!

— Aaron.