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Welcome to The Matchday Digest!

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Gameweek 15 Preview and Projections

Title Race

Aston Villa are currently the third favourite for the Premier League title after their incredible run of form from the start of the season. But that’s somewhat dwafted by Arsenal continuing to sit above 71% likely to be champions.

Relegation Battle

After Leeds’ shock upset win against Chelsea, they now come out of the projected relegation zone, only just, but that slips West Ham into the projected bottom three despite them getting what could be valuable points against Manchester United.

However, it’s only 32.1% likely to see that the current projected bottom three are actually relegated right now.

Matrix & Average Table

Manchester United now slip out of the projected European spots, now sitting in 8th spot. This could turn out to be a European spot, but they would need the winners of the FA Cup and EFL cups to be above them and qualify for Europe by alternative routes.

I have included the Matrix this week so that hopefully you can spot the one outlier now here…

Sunderland win 1 in 10,000 simulated Premier Leagues.

Just incase you wondered, how?

It’s simulation 7,418 on Fusion-Sim.com

How does the Fusion-Sim 2.0 Model see Gameweek 15?

The most interesting thing from these projections I can see this week is that the model sees it very similar to the gap between Aston Villa and Arsenal, Wolves and Man United.

Man United are projected to score 1.66 goals against Wolves, and Arsenal are projected to score 1.63 goals against Aston Villa.

I would say the model still is backing the bigger teams, maybe slightly too much, with Sunderland losing to Manchester City at 73.2%. The reason for this is that to make the model less reactive and jumpy, which was a common criticism of my previous models, It might now take longer to adapt to teams consistently over-performing what it expects.

There may be some small patches to the FS models coming soon, once the app is out, and some new leagues are being worked on!

And finally, just for Manchester United fans, check out Back to Carrington below!

Match Reviews and Form & Trends all stat-based too

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading!

— Aaron.