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Gameweek 12 Preview and Projections

Title Race

Even though it seems like an age ago since Sunderland got that draw against Arsenal, which actually in the end only cost them around 8.9% in the Premier League Title Race. The 1.97% fall you see in the image above was the drop after the Liverpool vs Man City game.

Crazy to think that Liverpool 5 games in were sitting pretty on 15 points and were nearing a similar title percentage as Arsenal are now. How times can change.

Are Man City back in the title race?

Relegation Battle

Since it’s been a while, I thought to include the full Premier League relegation battle so you can even see the handful of times that Chelsea have been relegated from the Premier League.

Apart from Wolves looking a shoo-in to be relegated, you can see how far from over it is, with the chance of the current 3 most likely teams all being relegated is just 20.7%.

Matrix & Average Table

If you have not seen the Matrix before, or I have never explained it, it shows the chance of every team finishing in each position over 10,000 simulations of the Premier League’s remaining games.

The average table is similar to that, but we just show the same data in a table-like form to get a look at what you could call the expected final standings based on everything we know right now.

How does the Fusion-Sim 2.0 Model see Gameweek 12

Here we see a condensed look at how the model sees gameweek 12. The expected goals are the average number of goals across 10,000 simulations of that game, where each team scored. The clean sheet percentage is, of course, the number of those 10,000 in which they conceded 0 goals as a percentage.

Then this table shows how based on those 10,000 simulations of each game, how many times did the game end in a home win, away win or a draw.

And finally, just for Manchester United fans, check out Back to Carrington below!

Match Reviews and Form & Trends all stat-based too

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading!

— Aaron.