Premier League - Gameweek 11

Gameweek 11 Preview, Title Race Projections and MORE!

Author

Aaron Warburton
November 07, 2025

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Gameweek 11 Preview and Projections

Title Race

This will be a big swing week in the title race this season, Arsenal would most benifit from a draw between Manchester City and Liverpool, while a win for either team will produce a significant blow in the losing sides title hopes.

Relegation Battle

Wolves seem almost certainly down at this point with thier chance of surviving the Premier league set at just 13.1%. West Ham's upset win against Newcastle has at least given them a fighting chance of survival.

Matrix

That being said about West Ham, there is still a rouge 1 in 10,000 simulation that has them in 2nd place!

However on average, they still sit a projected 2 points from safety.

How does the Fusion-Sim 2.0 Model see Gameweek 11

As expected, the most for sure win of the week is most likely to be Chelsea against Wolves. The former is projected to score 2.22 goals and have a 38.6% chance at a clean sheet.

The biggest game of the weekend sees the model favourite Manchester City, most likely due to them being the home side.

A short and sweet Matchday Digest, and I am testing around with different posting times for this newsletter to see what ends up working best!

And finally, just for Manchester United fans, check out Back to Carrington below!

Match Reviews and Form & Trends all stat-based too

Back to CarringtonA free Man Utd newsletter with data-driven tactical analysis, player reports, & match reviews. Go beyond the score with xG, form tracking, & pattern analysis.

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading!

— Aaron.