Welcome to The Matchday Digest, here is everything you need for Gameweek 38!

Also, before we dive into it, thank you to everyone who reads this Newsletter, even over the summer, every Friday you’ll get a Matchday Digest in your inbox, we will be looking at past league seasons, website updates, and so much more. If you have any suggestions for things you’d like to see, then reach out to me on X (Twitter) or TikTok!

I am not going to delve too much into individual matches like I normally do as we have a lot to cover in the race for European football section of the newsletter. However I will mention as its gained a lot of traction on my TikTok, yes my model has Nottingham Forest favourite vs Chelsea which means Aston Villa are more likely to qualify for the Champions League than Chelsea. BUT its very close.

• Nottingham Forest win - 37.6%

• Draw - 32.0%

• Chelsea win - 30.4%

In fact, it’s the closest match of the gameweek by far.

Race for Europe

So going into the final gameweek, we know the exact European comps which 4 of our teams will be in next season with Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs in the Champions League and Crystal Palace in the Europa League, however, there is still much left to be decided.

First, here are all the final permutations for the European Spots.

We are not including Newcastle 7th, Chelsea 6th + winning UECL as that’s less than a 1 in 10,000 chance.

1. Chelsea finish top 5 OR fail to win the Conference League

   1st to 5th: Champions League
   6th: Europa League
   7th: Conference League
   Spurs: Champions League by winning the Europa League
   Crystal Palace: Europa League by winning the FA Cup
   9 Teams in Europe from the Premier League

2. Chelsea finish 6th AND win the Conference League

   1st to 5th: Champions League
   6th & 7th: Europa League
   NO Conference League Place
   Spurs: Champions League by winning the Europa League
   Crystal Palace: Europa League by winning the FA Cup
   9 Teams in Europe from the Premier League

3. Chelsea finish 7th AND win the Conference League

   1st to 5th: Champions League
   6th & 7th: Europa League
   8th: Conference League
   Spurs: Champions League by winning the Europa League
   Crystal Palace: Europa League by winning the FA Cup
   10 Teams in Europe from the Premier League

Here is what your team needs to be in their best European Competition possible!

Manchester City - Avoid defeat to Fulham, i.e. 1 point will secure Champions League Football.

Newcastle - Beat Everton, i.e. 3 points will be enough for them to secure Champions League Football.

Chelsea - Beat Nottingham Forest, 3 points will be enough for them to secure Champions League Football. (As long as Villa don’t beat their goal difference by at least 12!)

Aston Villa - Beat Man United AND one of Newcastle or Chelsea fail to win OR Man City lose. This would secure Champions League Football.

Nottingham Forest - Beat Chelsea AND Newcastle or Aston Villa fail to win. This would secure Champions League Football.

Brighton - Avoid defeat to Spurs, and this would secure 8th. Then Chelsea lose AND Aston Villa win. AND Cheslea then must go on to win the Conference League. This would secure Conference League Football.

Brentford - Beat Wolves and Brighton lose to Spurs, this would secure 8th. Then Chelsea lose AND Aston Villa win. AND Chelsea then must go on to win the Conference League. This would secure Conference League Football.

YouTube

If you have not already seen, I have started a YouTube Channel were in the summer I will be making some longer form content so if that sounds interesting you can subscribe below so you don’t miss out!

Waitlist SIGN UP!

And finally, if you also have not already, the Waitlist link for Fusion Sim, which is the website I am building so you’ll be able to access and play with all the simulation data my models are outputting, is below.

There is NO ETA! It will be out and ready when it works!

Over 2,200 people have already signed up, so make sure you get your spot!