Gameweek 37 + FA Cup Final

Welcome to The Matchday Digest, here is everything you need for Gameweek 37, plus we have a FA Cup final update as well as a look into the race for those European Spots with just 2 gameweeks to go!

Arsenal need just a single point to secure Champions League football, and they could do it this weekend vs Newcastle. However, Newcastle will still be giving it their all as they look to get themselves back into the Champions League too. The model is projecting just over 3 goals in this game at 3.01.

The highest goals projected this gameweek for any team is Manchester City at home to Bournemouth, which comes to me as slightly high as Bournemouth are still technically within a chance of fighting for a European Spot and so will need a win to give any hope of achieving it. The projected goals for this game is 2.31 to 1.21.

Finally, Brentford vs Fulham is the game to keep an eye on with both teams still able to get 8th place in the league which will be 100% a European spot given Man City win the FA Cup.

Arsenal are being projected at a 60.8% chance to beat Newcastle this weekend and therefore a 79.7% chance of a guaranteed Champions League spot with them only needing that one spot.

Nottingham Forest have a 50.2% chance of beating West Ham. With them needing to pick up a win to have any chance of still being in the fight for a UCL spot, they did, however, guarantee themselves a European Spot last gameweek.

The closest game of the week is Leicester City vs Ipswich Town, on paper a meaningless game with both already relegated, however Jamie Vardy will be playing his last game for the club, so hopefully he can grab a goal to get number 200 for Leicester in his 500th game for them.

FA Cup Final

The model is projecting a tight FA Cup final at 57.1% likely for Manchester City and 42.9% likely for Crystal Palace.

For Crystal Palace, the FA Cup is of huge importance as a win would qualify them for the Europa League next season. Whereas for Manchester City, they are still focused on the League as they look to get themselves a top 5 finish for the Champions League.

Manchester City still could end up in the Conference League this season…

Europe Update

A green tick means that team is guaranteed to be in that competition come the end of the season, with the top 7 all already securing their spots. However, we only know for sure what competition those teams will be in for Liverpool.

Arsenal can only qualify for the Champions League or Europa League, while all the other clubs can qualify for all 3 of the European Competitions, depending on the results in the next 2 gameweeks.

8th place in can be a Conference League spot, but it can still be a Europa League spot. Thats why you see Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton and Fulham still with a small chance.

This is the ONLY scenario:

Man City need to win the FA Cup AND Chelsea need to win UECL while finishing 7th.