Gameweek 35

Welcome to The Matchday Digest, here is everything you need for Gameweek 35!

A short newsletter this week, but with European Chances after all the First Legs of the Semi-Finals, plus the FA Cup finalists being known!

Manchester City are the standout side in Gameweek 35, with a dominant expected goals figure of 2.54 at home to Wolves, the highest of the week. They also top the clean sheet projections at 44.5%. Everton (2.01 xG) and Brentford (1.91 xG) are the next most likely to score heavily, based on the model’s projections.

At the other end, several matches look tightly contested. Arsenal vs Bournemouth, Aston Villa vs Fulham, and Leicester vs Southampton all show relatively balanced xG figures between the two sides, with none of the teams exceeding 1.7 xG. Clean sheet chances in these games range mostly between 19% and 27%, indicating possible goals at both ends.

Liverpool’s trip to Chelsea is projected to be one of the more open contests, with the away side given 1.71 xG to Chelsea’s 1.43. Interestingly, neither side is favoured defensively, with both having clean sheet odds under 24%. Across the board, no away side is projected above a 26% chance of a clean sheet, and only City break the 40% mark overall, suggesting we could be in for a weekend with goals in most fixtures.

Manchester City are overwhelming favourites to win in Gameweek 35, with an 81.6% chance of beating Wolves, the highest home win probability of the weekend by a clear margin. Arsenal (63.2%) and Everton (61.0%) also have strong backing to secure home wins in their fixtures against Bournemouth and Ipswich, respectively. These three are the only sides given over a 60% likelihood of taking three points on their own turf.

However, Arsenal’s chance may in reality be slightly lower given they are likely to rest players for the second leg of their upcoming Champions League Semi-Final.

A trio of games stands out as tough to call. Chelsea (31.1%) and West Ham (31.6%) are slight underdogs at home against Liverpool and Spurs, both of whom are given win probabilities over 43%. Crystal Palace’s match against Nottingham Forest is the most evenly split of the weekend, with the home win, draw, and away win all hovering around the mid-30% range. This suggests plenty of uncertainty and potential for upsets in the closing fixtures of the gameweek.

European Chances

This was updated after the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Final first legs and the Nottingham Forest vs Brentford game.

With the Premier League very likely to have 9 teams in Europe next season, with almost certainly 6 Champions League sides! With 5 coming from the top 5 league finishers, and then either Manchester United or Spurs.

And to note we could still have 7 teams in the Champions League from the Premier League too!

This is because the extra 5th place spot is given after the UEFA tournament winners get there’s so if Arsenal were to win the Champions League but finish 5th in the league, then the 5th UCL spot would drop to the team in 6th and then if Spurs or Man United won the Europa League, England would have 7 UCL Teams!