Gameweek 31 + European Chances

Welcome to The Matchday Digest. Here is everything you need for Gameweek 31!

Firstly, I have just launched my YouTube channel, where I will be posting longer form content! So if you’re interested in that that make sure to check it out!

Now onto Gameweek 31!

Tottenham are projected to score the most goals this weekend. The trend is that any side which plays Southampton will now be the team which has the most projected goals.

You’d think this would be the same with Leciester City, but in fact Man City are projected to score 0.01 more goals against Man Utd than Newcastle is against Leicester.

Manchester City are projected at 62.1% likely to beat Manchester United in the Manchester Derby. The red side of Manchester wins out in just 16.9% of simulations. Its the second least likely team to win this weekend other than Southampton.

Ipswich against Wolves could be the other big game of the gameweek with a win for Ipswich, projected at 33.5%, could start a miracle comeback for them.

Liverpool now sits at 99.8% likely to win the Premier League title. Not much more to be said here, if Liverpool lose it, it would be the biggest bottle in Premier League history.

Leicester join the 100% relegated club. This does not mean they are mathematically down, it means that in 10,000 simulations of all remaining games, they were relegated in every single one.

This is the updated “Who will make Europe” Graphic from my TikTok page, showing each team’s chance of making Europe based on how all the other competitions go too.

3 Teams are currently seen making Europe in 100% of the 10,000. That being Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle. The last 2 teams there in that list are mathematically guaranteed to be in Europe. Newcastle, because of the EFL Cup win, and Liverpool will finish 7th or higher, no matter what happens now.