Welcome to The Matchday Digest! Here’s a rundown of what’s in the newsletter,

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• Premier League Gameweek 3

• FusionSim 1.5 Update

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Gameweek 3 Preview and Projections

Let’s begin with fixture difficulty

After Aston Villa play Crystal Palace this weekend, they have a great run of 4 fixtures. Tottenham are still a light green difficulty on my fixture ticker, not sure they will continue to stay like that if this form continues.

Below is the current title probabilities from the end of Gameweek 1 to the end of Gameweek 2.

Man City lost 22.5% of their title chances after both Liverpool and Arsenal won their games. This is quite a big swing; however, these are somewhat expected at the start of the season as the model learns the true strengths of each team this season. Liverpool, though, became the first team this season to be on 50% or higher at becoming Premier League Champions.

The relegation battle is hotting up already though,

Sunderland’s loss to Burnley will hurt their survival chances in the long run, as 3 points could make all the difference, but to have 4 teams all within 14% of each other in terms of survival,

Wolves: 59.4%, Burnley: 53.9%, Leeds Utd: 48.9% and West Ham: 45.0%

Of course, only 2 of these 4 could go down with the model still having Sunderland’s chance at surviving much lower than these 4 at just 14.6%.

Despite the horrific form Man United continues to show, they are expected to score 1.99 goals against Burnley and have a clean sheet chance of 32.6%. Not sure I am that confident in them stopping Burnley from scoring at least 1!

The biggest match of the weekend is, of course, Liverpool vs Arsenal.

The model has this at being won by the defending champions exactly 50% of the 10,000 simulations, the other 50% is almost split equally between a draw and Arsenal win. Arsenal win this matchup in 24.9% of sims, leaving the draw occurring in 25.1%.

A win for either side will be a big swing in the early Title projections.

FusionSim 1.5 Sneak Peek!

I should be shipping the update to FusionSim today (Friday 29th August 2025). Here’s what’s in store!

This week’s update is all about European Football. With the draws happening for the Europa League and Conference League today and the Champions League draw happening yesterday, all these pages will be up and running after the draws have been completed.

All sneak peeks you will see are using mock data and teams.

UEFA Champions League

Each of the UEFA competitions has these 4 pages. Below, I’ll show versions from each competition.

Similar to the EFL Cup tournament viewer, you can view up to 10,000 different simulations in full detail, showing the league phase table and results, as well as the full knockouts.

UEFA Europa League

The average table means you can see what the League Phase table is on average, currently finishing like, according to the model.

The classic cup probabilities pages clearly show what is the chance of each team reaching each stage of the tournament.

UEFA Conference League

Finally is the League Matrix, so you can see the exact chance of each team finishing in each position of the league phase.

How Many Sims Until… more parameters

There are now some new parameters in the How many sims compute mode. Allowing you to search for things like how many until any team scores 100 or more goals.

Below is an example of the full list of types you can search for.

Also, I will slowly be adding in more presets; these are very rare things, but technically possible outcomes. So the first of these would be either a title or relegation playoff. Below shows how and why these can happen!

That’s it for this week!

Thank you for the incredible support so far on FusionSim!

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