Welcome to The Matchday Digest, Here is everything you need for Gameweek 29!

4 Teams are without games this week: Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Aston Villa due to the Liverpool vs Newcastle EFL Cup final. So we are left with just the 8 games this week.

Manchester City have the highest projected goals this week vs an on-form Brighton side at 2.25 goals to Brighton’s 0.98.

Southampton are projected to score 1.25 goals against a Wolves side still without Cunha, this surely is their best remaining chance this season to get a win and avoid becoming the worse side in Premier League history.

Arsenal is projected to be 63.9% likely to beat Chelsea this weekend, with them looking to do whatever they can to stay in the title fight. Any dropped points might see Liverpool win 100% of my model’s 10,000 league titles.

The closest game of the week is projected to be that Southampton vs Wolves game, with Southampton winning 29.3% of the time. This means that if they do lose, we would expect to see a large increase in their probability to finish on 10 points or fewer.

The title race is close to over. Liverpool is now at 99.8% likely to be Premier League champions. What’s interesting is Arsenals peak chance only got to around 25% this season and that was not even in 2025, but towards the end of 2024…

Southampton vs Wolves. The result could dramatically alter or solidify the plot you see above, currently, Wolves are the only other club in 10,000 other than the newly promoted sides to be relegated. Currently Wolves are just 2.6% likely to go down.

Looking ahead

The reason wolves remain so low is their fixture run continues to be the easiest other the next 6 gameweeks. Whereas the likes of Ipswich and Leicester still have some of the hardest runs.

Website Updates!

First of all, the waitlist is here! Over 1,380 people have already signed up so make sure you get your spot and know first when it’s out!

The last few weeks have been quite a lot of work redesigning the backend of the site so visually it looks not too much different however the backend is now much better meaning that I can finish off all the features ontop of it!

For example,

If you’re new to the newsletter, then you might not have seen the Club Profiles before, so here are some examples!

If you want to catch the site in action and ask any questions! Then I will be live on TikTok tonight, Friday 14th March! At around 8pm