Welcome to The Matchday Digest, here is everything you need for Gameweek 28! Also, thank you to all the new newsletter subscribers, now over 200!

If you’re new here, then welcome! First up are the projected Goals and Clean Sheets from my goals model.

As expected, the most one-sided game of the week is projected to be Liverpool vs Southampton, with Liverpool on average scoring 3.19 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 44.2% of 10,000 simulated games.

In the biggest game of the gameweek, Man United vs Arsenal, Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 37.3% of the 10,000 sims, scoring an average of 1.69 goals, whereas United don’t even score 1 goal on average, scoring a projected 0.98 goals, at home too!

In comparison, Leciester are projected to score 1.10 goals away to Chelsea, likewise, Ipswich are projected to score 1.04 goals away to Crystal Palace. Man United relegation level league form is starting to show itself in the model…

Next is the gameweek match probabilities; these come straight out of my model, which is seen most on TikTok.

Southampton have just a 3.2% chance of beating Liverpool at Anfield, which to me does even feel slightly high given their current form; however, given Liverpool might rest some key players in this game, maybe it’s about right.

Man United have the 3rd lowest win percentage of the weekend. I wonder when the last time that happened in the Premier League! They sit on just a 15.3% chance of beating Arsenal, with only Southampton and Lecister less likely to win.

The closest game of the weekend is Brentford vs Aston Villa, with my model calling it pretty much a 50/50 game, favouring the home side by around 0.5%. The result of that game could show a huge swing in who makes the European Tourment next season.

With Arsenal dropping more points last gameweek, it might be time to readjust my plot, with Liverpool now projected to win the League title in 99.5% of 10,000 simulations with it now seeming more like when, not if Liverpool wins the title.

This is straight from my TikTok page, which shows the current gameweek in which Liverpool is projected to win the League, which now looks most common coming out of gameweek 34 after playing Spurs at home

The earliest technically possible is Gameweek 31, which happens in just 1 of 10,000 sims.

The relegation battle looked to be set in stone until in the FA Cup weekend, when Cunha got himself sent off for Wolves and will now be suspended until 5th April so potentially these releagtion probabilities are slightly misleading…

This is because the model only sees how teams play on the pitch in that league. So It will wait to see how Wolves play vs Everton before changing its mind or not on their performance and likelihood of survival. However it could all change with one of the bottom 3 winning.

Looking ahead

However, Wolves still remain with the second easiest fixture run over the next 6 gameweeks, with both Ipswich and Leciester have difficult runs over that same period.

Website Updates!

First of all, the waitlist is here! Over 1,200 people have already signed up, so make sure you get your spot and find out first!

A lot of backend work has gone into the website this week as that’s the main part of the site still to complete, but a lot of progress has been made!

The long-term vision of the site will be to have a huge catalogue of old simulations so you could view any probability from the history of the Premier League (Maybe more leagues, too!) Plus, see any tables it would have projected at the time. My goal is to make it the ultimate What if? site, where we will be able to tell infinite stories from any different time in history, all using data.

Imagine Leicester's winning season, The Aguro Goal for Man City or even Arsenal’s invincible season. We could see plots, how likely it would or would not have been, plus many more. So any support you show on any of my content, including this newsletter, is hugely appreciated!

If you got this far thank you for reading and before Gameweek 29 there should be some more great updates!