Welcome to The Matchday Diget, here is everything you need for Gameweek 25

Gameweek 25 is yet another double gameweek, with Liverpool reaching the EFL Cup final, their game against Aston Villa in gameweek 29 has been moved to gameweek 25.

Liverpool is expected to have the highest clean sheet potential this gameweek but against Wolves at home, this is projected to be at 38.0%. This is also the highest expected goals for any team in the gameweek with Liverpool projected to have 2.97.

By Expected goals the closest game of the week is projected to be West Ham vs Brentford, scoring 1.47 and 1.49 goals respectively.

My expected goals model is improving following some small improvements, but does need work, its taken a bit of a back seat for the Website and additional TikTok content I have been making.

This however comes straight from my Premier League Model which simulates each season 10,000 times. So the percentages seen here are how often each team wins each game in the 10,000.

This still suggests the West Ham vs Brentford game is the tightest of the weekend, being split by just 1% in West Hams's favour.

The most sure win is set to be Liverpool vs Wolves, with Liverpool winning the match in 84.6% of 10,000 simulations.

Everton last last-minute goal vs Liverpool did not hinder their title chances too much, with Liverpool still sitting at around 91% of becoming Champions in my M<odels 10,000 simulations of the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest enters the plot again, the wins exactly 0.11% of my Models 10,000 simulations, it’s not at all likely, but it is possible…

Wolves still look unlikely to be relegated from the Premier League with them having a much better fixture run over the next 6 weeks, unlike closest to them Leicester City. We can see below on the difficulty grid Wolves face an average opposition of 79.9 (Which Includes 100-rated Liverpool) over the next 6 whereas Leicester face an average opposition of 85.4.

Looking ahead

Blanks and Doubles now have been coded into the difficulty grid!

Crystal Palace and Bournemouth remain to have the easiest run over the next 6 weeks, so if you’re an FPL player, Bournemouth seems ones to target given they don’t blank in gameweek 29.

Elsewhere Newcastle and Leicester have the hardest run, looks like Gordon will be a transfer out for me!

These plots I include each week however now we are getting into the blank and the doubles part of the season offers little insight as teams have 0 some weeks and others have much more due to 2 games, so take them with a pinch of salt! (Plus my goals model is still a work in progress)

Website Information and Waitlist!

First of all, the waitlist is here! Over 170 people have already signed up so make sure you get your spot!

Below are some screenshots of the site showing off a few features that it has, still in development but it’s coming along nicely!