Welcome to The Matchday Diget, here is everything you need for Gameweek 23

Gameweek 23 has more than two big fixtures, one of which you might not initially expect. The first and most obvious is Man City vs Chelsea. With Man City coming back into form but still expected just 1.77 goals from my updated model, while an out-of-form Chelsea has 1.50. Both teams will need a result to continue pushing for a top 4 finish and with Chelsea in somewhat of a free-fall given their start to the season now just having one win in 5 games whereas Man City will be looking to get back towards the top.

The other game is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest. At the start of the season, you’d have written this game off, however, Forest sits 3rd and Bournemouth 7th. A win for Bournemouth would take them equal on points to Chelsea should they lose to Chelsea and if Forest has any chance at a miracle title challenge they will need to overcome the model goals of just 1.25 to Bournemouth’s projected 1.54 goals.

Liverpool have one of the highest win percentages I can recall seeing with a 87.0% chance of beating Ipswich at home on Saturday. Elsewhere Manchester United have been given just a 21.7% chance of beating Fulham which would mark Uniteds 11th loss of the season.

After the title race closed up last week with Liverpool’s draw to Manchester United, we found Liverpool jumping back to round the 92% level after Arsenal failed to win vs Aston Villa. Any more dropped points would surely almost seal the Premier League for Liverpool unless Nottingham Forest or Manchester City who now win the league less than 0.1% of the time can produce a miracle run.

Southampton are still almost guaranteed to return back to the championship next year. Likewise, Leicester City’s poor run is helping them get closer towards that mark, now sitting at 90.0% chance of relegation in my models 10,000 simulations.

Ipswich or Wolves are the next most likely too with Ipswich needing to pick up a big win somewhere to improve their chances.

Looking ahead

The Fixture difficulty grid has a slightly new look now that we have our first double gameweek of the season, with Liverpool and Everton in gameweek 24.

Manchester City currently have the hardest fixture outlook having to play everyone instead of the top 6 other than themselves in the next 6 gameweeks.

Liverpool will be much higher here thanks to that double gameweek and a home fixture vs Southampton in gameweek 28 also. Elsewhere Manchester United are the 19th team for expected goals over the next 6 gameweeks…

Clean sheet wise Arsenal remain the most likely to keep the most clean sheets over the next 6, with Manchester City this time placing 19th for the clean sheets over the next 6 gameweeks given that fixture run.

Man United & Spurs Relegation?

Manchester United and Tottenham are having awful seasons in the Premier League and as of 20th January 2025 still do get relegated in a very small percentage of my models 10,000 Premier League simulations.

So here are 2 of those 10,000 simulations where that exact thing happens…

Manchester United Relegation

Most of this simulation looks reasonable with what we know about the season so far, except when we get to the bottom 3. In simulation 292 of 10,000, Manchester United finished on 32 points, getting just 8 wins, 8 draws and 22 losses, meaning they went on to win just 1 of their last 16 games, picking up just 6 points from a possible 48!

Of course highly unlikely but it’s not impossible!

Tottenham Relegation

In simulation 2,721 two very interesting things occur. And it’s not the fact that after an amazing start, Nottingham Forest fell to 8th in the league.

Southampton in the same simulation that Spurs are relegated finished on just 10 points breaking the record and becoming the worst side ever to play in the Premier League breaking the historic 11-point Derby County record.

Tottenham finished 18th, picking up just 30 points which is 6 points from their next 16 games and somehow Leicester City also survive in this universe!