Welcome to The Matchday Diget, here is everything you need for Gameweek 22

Nottingham Forest got a big buff in the latest model update with them now projected to score 1.91 goals at home to a Southampton side who are heading towards being one of the worst sides in Premier League history.

Elsewhere, Manchester City has the highest projected goals, with 2.45 away to Ipswich. Ipswich is projected to have just a 6.7% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

Nottingham Forest enters the title race plot for the first time! Now winning the Premier League in 0.2% of the 10,000 simulations. Manchester City for the first time fully dropped out of the plot, with their chance now below 0.1%.

Liverpool has dropped from their peak of just above 90% to now 83.9% with them looking to get back to winning ways vs Brentford.

Southampton are now relegated in all but 7 of the 10,000 simulations. Ipswich will still need some big results to go their way to survive and with Man City up next that big win does not look likely to come from there.

Looking ahead

Manchester United have on paper the easiest fixture run over the next 6 gameweeks, however, they are proving that nothing is easy currently, relying on a late Amad hattrick to put away Southampton.

Wolves have one of the worst four-game streaks possible next, with Chelsea, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and a trip to Anfield.

The main goals and clean sheet plots will be back next week! I’m currently working on updating these models after some great feedback!

Title Race Special

A brand new edition to the newsletter is this GIF showing how the title race chances have changed throughout the season! It aims to show the ups and downs of the season and how the unexpected always happens, Manchester City started with an 89% chance of winning the league title; now it’s the middle of January and they don’t feature on the plot!