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Gameweek 1 Preview and Projections

Finally, the Premier League is back!

Let’s start by looking at who has the hardest start to the season,

Arsenal, Man United and Newcastle have the most difficult start to the season. So it will be interesting to see how the result of Arsenal’s difficult start to their campaign affects their early title projections.

Currently, Arsenal sit 3rd favourite for the Premier League title at 29.6%, behind Liverpool at 37.0% and Manchester City at 31.3%.

I think we are bound to see Chelsea fly up after a few gameweeks, with my model only seeing things which happen in the Premier League season on the pitch, so it has no knowledge of their recent Club World Cup win.

However, the model still has them putting an average of 1.73 goals past Crystal Palace on the opening weekend.

The model, as expected, is very high on Liverpool, giving them a 78.3% chance of kicking off their title defence in the perfect way against Bournemouth.

Sunderland have been given a modest 28.0% chance of getting what could be 3 crucial points to stay in the Premier League, especially given it’s against a side which could be in for a relegation battle this season?

West Ham starts the season with a 19.1% chance of being relegated to the Championship. Sunderland start with 92.4%! So it’s fair to say they need every point they can get.

FusionSim 1.3 Sneak Peek!

I should be shipping the next big update to FusionSim today (Friday 15th August 2025). Here’s what is in store!

Which is Rarer? Global rank

You’ll now be able to see this small box that shows where your high scores sit in all recorded high scores. A great idea from people who come along to my occasional TikTok streams.

Premier League Fixture Difficulty

I showed an example of this above. This will be free to use for anyone, and I will be rolling this out next week for all the other leagues too.

Additional favourite clubs

You will now be able to purchase for 5 credits addtional favoruite club spots. This won’t take over your original favourite club, but if you’re a free user who wants to see another club’s profiles, you’ll be able to do so!

Fixture Simulator

Thanks to Harrison for this idea!

You’ll now be able to pick any teams which are currently in our database, more of which will be added when more leagues are up and running and when UEFA tournaments start in the league phase, and simulate how they would fare against each other.

An important note is that the simulations assume both teams field their strongest available XI, play to their best ability, and reflect typical season form.

So don’t expect Liverpool to be losing any games to Truro City!

If this is a popular tool, I’ll add in the model selection here so you can see what happens if its a more rotated team and so things become more equal.

Share mode & Share Codes

This is probably the biggest update of the week, which was a major step in being able to save and share your simulations and generations.

You’ll see a button across different tools such as the Generator, Simulator and What If Simulator, which will generate a code for you to share and others can input that code to see your creations. This is also super useful in saving your own custom team ratings rather than having to redo them each time.

If there is any other places you want share codes, let me know!

That’s it! Thank you for reading the Matchday Digest and thank you for all the amazing support!