FA Cup 4th Round + EPL Title Plot

No Premier League this weekend so here is a short Matchday Digest around the FA Cup 4th Round and included is the updated Title probability and Relegation probability plots.

Predictably, Liverpool and Manchester City remain favourites of the FA Cup despite Man City having a rocky season so far, with Liverpool having the highest chance of winning at 21.2% while Man City sit second favourite at 14.2%.

At the time of writing this Newcastle has just made the EFL Cup final and has a 14.9% chance at making the FA Cup final too leading to a 7.7% chance to go all the way. They come in as the third favourite.

Leeds United is the highest of the non-Premier League teams at a 2.4% chance of winning the FA Cup, they are ahead of all 3 likely relegation candidates, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton.

In 10,000 simulations, every team won the FA Cup at least once! With Doncaster somehow winning the FA Cup 4 times out of the 10,000.

4 Teams remain in the title race according to my model, despite only 2 teams appearing on the plot above. Manchester City win 0.03% of Simulations and Nottingham Forest win 0.04% of sims.

Liverpool briefly hit higher than a 93% chance before Arsenal’s big win vs Manchester City.

As for relegation, the picture is becoming much clearer as all 3 of the promoted teams look likely to be going right back down.

These changes might seem drastic, however with Southampton taking points off Ipswich, Wolves upsetting Villa and now Wolves having a much easier fixture run on the horizon the model feels rather confident in its 3 relegated teams.